I additionally strongly suspect that compute horsepower will likely be mandatory (and presumably even ample) to succeed in AGI. If historic tendencies are any indication, progress in AI is primarily pushed by methods – compute, information, infrastructure. The core algorithms we use at present have remained largely unchanged from the ~90s. Not solely that, however any algorithmic advances revealed in a paper someplace will be nearly instantly re-implemented and included. Conversely, algorithmic advances alone are inert with out the dimensions to additionally make them scary.
It appears to me that OpenAI at present is burning money and that the funding mannequin can’t attain the dimensions to significantly compete with Google (an 800B firm). If you cannot significantly compete however proceed to do analysis in open, you would possibly in actual fact be making issues worse and serving to them out “without spending a dime”, as a result of any advances are pretty straightforward for them to repeat and instantly incorporate, at scale.
A for-profit pivot would possibly create a extra sustainable income stream over time and would, with the present workforce, probably usher in numerous funding. Nevertheless, constructing out a product from scratch would steal focus from AI analysis, it will take a very long time and it is unclear if an organization might “catch up” to Google scale, and the buyers would possibly exert an excessive amount of stress within the improper instructions.Essentially the most promising possibility I can consider, as I discussed earlier, could be for OpenAI to connect to Tesla as its money cow. I consider attachments to different massive suspects (e.g. Apple? Amazon?) would fail attributable to an incompatible firm DNA. Utilizing a rocket analogy, Tesla already constructed the “first stage” of the rocket with the entire provide chain of Mannequin 3 and its onboard laptop and a persistent web connection. The “second stage” could be a full self driving resolution primarily based on large-scale neural community coaching, which OpenAI experience might considerably assist speed up. With a functioning full self-driving resolution in ~2-3 years we might promote numerous vehicles/vehicles. If we do that rather well, the transportation trade is massive sufficient that we might improve Tesla’s market cap to excessive O(~100K), and use that income to fund the AI work on the applicable scale.
I can’t see the rest that has the potential to succeed in sustainable Google-scale capital inside a decade.